Arthur Hayes Thinks Bitcoin Is Running Off With Your Money – Here’s Why

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If you ever fancied the idea of Bitcoin donning a cape and swooping to a million dollars by 2028 (give or take a few surprising economic disasters), Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX chief and part-time monetary soothsayer, has just the prophecy for you. And no, it’s not because the banks have finally read the manual to the crypto-ATM.

According to Hayes, while most people are moon-gazing for ETFs and institutional cavalry charging in, the real plot twist is something altogether more sinister: capital controls. Yes, that’s right—the kind of financial wizardry that makes foreign investors rethink their life choices and start shopping for gold… or, for those with a taste for the digital, Bitcoin.

Hayes, Capital Controls, and a Million-Dollar Wager (How Original!) 🤑

Hayes has bet on Bitcoin hitting a million bucks before. A couple of weeks ago, it was all about Treasury buybacks, bond market chaos, and a sprinkle of “monetary detonation” (which sounds a lot more fun than it probably is). Now, his newest vision involves the U.S. government—possibly led by a familiar orange-hued ex-reality show host—ditching tariffs in favor of playing “tax the foreigners” with America’s stock, bond, and real estate toys. If you’ve ever wondered what it’s like to be unpopular at a global dinner party, this is it.

“Foreign capital repatriation and the devaluation of the gargantuan stock of US treasuries will be the two catalysts that will power Bitcoin to $1 million sometime between now and 2028,” declares Hayes, pausing only to check if gold has stopped embarrassingly yawning.

He argues tariffs are so last season—nobody likes expensive toasters or supply chains that look like spaghetti. The voters are getting cross. So, what’s a policymaker to do? Why, invent a sneaky little tax, of course! For example, a clever 2% levy on overseas-owned assets could magically conjure $600 billion—enough, says the ever-optimistic Hayes, to relieve most Americans from income tax. (Collective cheer from accountants everywhere!)

Why Hedge When You Can Flee? 🏃‍♂️💸

But wait! Before you sharpen your pitchforks, Hayes issues a warning: destabilizing the $33 trillion held in U.S. debt and equities by foreigners could be… messy. The Federal Reserve, that old monetary janitor, would likely be forced to crank up the money printers (again), greasing yields and puffing up asset prices with all the subtlety of an elephant doing ballet.

“Foreigners will be permitted to own most U.S. financial assets, but their value will be continuously taxed,” Hayes writes, presumably while cackling and twirling a metaphorical moustache.

He lays out three options for the newly-taxed international crowd: keep feeding America with exports and pay the privilege tax, sell fewer things and watch your profits fizzle, or bolt for borderless bolt-holes like Bitcoin and gold. But here, Bitcoin pulls ahead of its shiny competitor. Unlike gold, which requires storage, guards, and “I swear the vault is safe” reassurances, Bitcoin zips across borders without so much as a suitcase. Perfect for folks dodging capital controls and looking for an out-of-office reply.

By the way, Bitcoin hasn’t yet combusted: it’s trading around $102,000 today, which is—depending on your glass-half-full perspective—a minor 1.4% stumble for the day, a sprightly 3.2% for the week, and an eyebrow-lifting 20% boost for the month. Who needs a time machine when you can have volatility?

So, as Hayes lines up his million-dollar Bitcoin scoreboard, all eyes turn to monetary policy’s next episode: will it involve taxes, tariffs, or just a lot of bad-tempered international phone calls? In the meantime, Bitcoin polishes its cape, just in case.

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2025-05-15 12:00