Is Trump About to Destroy Capital Gains Tax? Here’s the Bet!

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The gamblers over at Polymarket are placing a hefty 56% bet that the 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump, might just wave his magic wand and eliminate the long-term capital gains tax by 2025. Sounds like a plot twist straight out of a political thriller, right? Trump has yet to confirm the grand plans, but his policies, like those endorsed by his army of right-leaning think tanks, seem to love the idea of slashing taxes—including the ever-hated capital gains tax. Hold on to your wallets, folks!

Trump Tax Twist? Polymarket Bets Big on Capital Gains Repeal

The speculators, those brave souls, are getting more and more convinced that Trump’s about to say goodbye to long-term capital gains taxes. And if you want to see where the action is, head over to Polymarket, where bettors are laying down $201,432 on this possibility. As of Monday, May 12, the odds are 56%, although the probability peaked at 80% back in mid-April, then dropped to 70% just two days ago. Talk about a rollercoaster of optimism!

Now, Trump’s keeping his lips sealed when it comes to capital gains taxes, but he’s been vocal about getting rid of taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security benefits. Oh, and don’t forget his big idea of eliminating income tax for those making under $150,000. Meanwhile, the Heritage Foundation’s “Project 2025” is all about reducing capital gains taxes to 15%, a figure last seen in 1941. Well, isn’t that a throwback to simpler times?

If Trump does decide to pull the trigger on axing or heavily slashing capital gains taxes, we can expect some serious waves in financial markets. Imagine, a huge tax break for bitcoin (BTC) holders—profits with little to no tax? Sounds like a dream come true. This would probably encourage more trading, boost liquidity, and maybe even lure in long-term investors who love the idea of tax-efficient returns. The whole thing could turn bitcoin into the shiny new store of value in a more favorable tax environment. Cha-ching!

But before you start dreaming of a world free of capital gains taxes, let’s not forget: for this dream to become a reality, it would need Congress to approve it. We all know how fast things move in Washington (sarcasm intended). In fact, a separate wager on Kalshi—another prediction platform—puts the chance of Trump eliminating capital gains at just 12%. Talk about a stark contrast to Polymarket’s more hopeful 56%. Are we all just living in different realities here?

So, no matter where you’re placing your bets—Polymarket or Kalshi—any change to the capital gains tax policy is still largely up in the air. If Congress gives the green light, bitcoin and other assets could become even more attractive, thanks to those sweet, sweet tax breaks. But until then, it’s all just a nice theoretical dream. Sorry, folks.

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2025-05-12 21:41