This Bitcoin Indicator Hasn’t Flashed Bullish Since February—Now It’s Back (With a Vengeance!)

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Somewhere between the dust and dreams of the internet, Bitcoin huddled above $103,000, like a coyote sniffing at the edge of campfire light. Gains from last week’s thunderhead surge clung to it, unwilling to let go just yet. No one quite knew whether the beast would snarl and leap for the fence—or just stare, squint-eyed, into the embers. After nicking $104,300, it settled into a narrow, uneasy corral. Folks whispered that this was “accumulation,” but it felt more like the market was holding its breath, afraid to spook the cattle. The bulls swaggered, hats cocked and boots muddy, thinking the path pointed upward. Their eyes fixed on that $109,000 ridge—a legend, not yet tamed. If the herd gets riled, they might just stampede past it.

A certain camp called CryptoQuant had its nose to the wind, too. They’d been tracking a thing called the Bull Bear Market Cycle indicator—one of those on-chain gadgets that never smiles. Since February 24, 2024, it’d been muttering bear tales louder than a prospector at the saloon. Now, quietly, it began to whistle a new tune, eyes darting sideways, hinting that perhaps a bull could prowl these lands again. The signal might not knock your hat off yet—the strength of it about as firm as a handshake from a nervous banker—but the moving average started to tilt north instead of south, and that got the old-timers raising their eyebrows and their whiskey glasses. 🥃

Out there, under the same wide sky, macro winds were calming, altcoins were setting themselves ablaze for reasons no one could truly explain, and Bitcoin just sat, steady as a tree stump. Even the crickets knew: this waiting game could crack open into something much bigger.

Bitcoin Facing the Music (And Probably Dancing Awkwardly)

There’s a moment before every storm when you can hear your own uncertainty rattle inside. Bitcoin, for months, waded through selling, cynicism, and the kind of macro confusion that makes you want to check your pockets for lint. Then came a rally, blowing the roof off $100,000. Now it wrestled near $104,000, which—on every map—was marked “Here Be Sellers.” The bulls are shouting from the corral, but everyone’s looking at that fence, knowing it’s the last big barrier before the old all-time highs. Break through $104K, and the barn doors blow open: momentum, optimism, the whole Wild West of investor euphoria. But that same spot might just bring a few profit-takers out of hiding, bent on spoiling the party.🍾

CryptoQuant keeps waving their report around, mumbling that the tide might—just might—be turning. Since late February, the Bull Bear Market Cycle indicator’s been gloomier than a dustbowl preacher. Now, in the last few days, it’s begun to blink and sputter with something almost resembling hope: a bullish coefficient of 0.029. Sure, it’s about as robust as a saloon door in a tornado, but at least it’s positive. More curious: the Bull-Bear 30DMA has started itching upward. If it leaps the gap and overtakes its slower, creakier cousin the 365DMA, history says Bitcoin could break into a parabolic canter. Past cycles nearly strained their legs doing this. May be time to hold onto your hats.

This is crossroads stuff. The charts, the indicators, and the stubborn optimism all converge in a dusty intersection. If the wheels hold, if the signals keep dancing, Bitcoin could scribble another wild chapter in its already absurd saga. 📚

Rallies, Resistance, and the Waiting Game

Bitcoin, never one for subtlety, just wrapped up a rally from beneath $90,000 to over $103,000—fast enough to make the beans jump out your stew. Now, it’s tapping its foot below the $103,600 gatepost, plotting its next mischief. The 4-hour chart shows a tight little bullish flag, like a boxer winding up for another jab—just below a supply zone, where sellers lurk, arms crossed. The 200-period SMA ($89,946) drags itself higher, and the EMA ($92,357) isn’t about to back down either, both offering a sturdy backstop should things get rowdy.

Volume has thinned, which happens when folks hold their breath before a punchline—or perhaps before a punch. That’s the hallmark of a bullish pause: buyers petting the horse before jumping back in the saddle. If Bitcoin can hop $103,600 with both boots, there’s little between it and that legendary $109,000. Miss the mark, though, and there’s every chance we see a dip to $100,000—a level so psychological you’d think Freud had charted it.

The structure looks solid. Breaking out above the $92K–$98K band was bold, and the bulls still drive the wagon. The next few sessions might tell if this is a trip to price-discovery country or just a brief spell at the water trough before the next dust-up. As always, the only sure thing is that nothing’s sure, except maybe a little more chaos—and a lot more stories. 🐂

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2025-05-10 18:32