Circle’s $10B Dream: Ripple Spurned, SEC Dazzled, NYSE Awaits (And There’s Sarcasm! 😏)

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Ripple, with all the earnestness of a lovesick protagonist in bleak February, has placed its $5 billion yearning before Circle—only for it to dissolve upon contact, like a snowflake on a bureaucrat’s glove. But John E. Deaton—the oracle perched on the legal ledge—suggests that Circle, feverish with visions of grandeur, peers beyond today’s bidder. Somewhere amid the stifling suits and market telegrams, Circle spies an independent future, shimmering at a speculative $10 billion. The market sits up like a bad actor awaiting applause, as regulatory winds swirl and crypto’s high society discovers institutional interest more persistent than a Russian winter.

Circle filed its S-1 with the SEC on April 1, 2025, planning to list on the NYSE under the ticker “CRCL,” with JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup as lead underwriters. The IPO is expected this summer. Circle is aiming for a valuation between $4 billion and $5 billion for its IPO.…

— John E Deaton (@JohnEDeaton1) May 2, 2025

Circle IPO Momentum Grows

April 1—the day of jesters—Circle submits its S-1 to the SEC, hoping for fewer circus acts than last time. NYSE, that moth-eaten theater, gets ready to spotlight “CRCL” as the main act. JPMorgan and Citigroup, top-hatted and armed with ledgers, nudge Circle toward the IPO stage, hoping to charm the crowd to a $4–$5 billion song, but there’s a hunger for more—a longing to rewrite that sad SPAC sonnet from 2022 with something closer to $9 billion. For a moment, the market forgets its boredom.

Cryptic Eri, with the slyness of a landlady peeping through the drapes, speculates that Ripple’s strategy isn’t about coin, but conquest. With Circle in its pocket, Ripple could cradle USDC (the stablecoin second only to the capricious Tether), padding its empire, nudging out plucky upstarts, and securing a vast network of payments awaiting the IPO’s limelight. Sounds terribly romantic, if you like your romance with fewer roses and more blockchains.

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Regulatory Winds Turn in Crypto’s Favor

But hark!—America’s lawmakers, weary of their usual quarrels, now don a more genial mask for crypto. With the fresh breeze of the STABLE GENIUS Act, we see lawmakers carving order from chaos: smaller stablecoin dreamers escape to the shadowy realm of state oversight, while the titans bravely submit to federal round-the-clock attention and the always appetizing prospect of audits. Ah, progress—marked by paperwork, anxiety and wild speculation.

Deaton fancies that such newfound clarity, nudged onward by politician’s proclamations and the soft thunder of investor trust, just might inflate Circle’s IPO dreams to $10 billion. Rejecting Ripple’s rich courtship, Circle seems to declare: “I am no one’s bauble—I will sparkle on my own terms.” Imagine the confidence! Or the audacity. Maybe both.

In the final act, Ripple’s gambit—chess or checkers, who’s to say—might have been a ploy. Circle, though, craves not an escape but that coveted runway—smooth, gleaming, possibly endless. This summer, as IPO fireworks threaten to outshine regulation’s steady glow, that path looks as promising as a break in the Soviet clouds. All we need now is for someone to play the balalaika.

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2025-05-03 09:58