Bitcoin Nears $100K and Boomers Are Licking Their Chops (Again!) đŸ˜±đŸ’ž

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Key points:

  • Bitcoin’s OG diamond hands are sitting on unrealized gains so juicy, it’s like they’ve been binge-watching Warren Buffett tutorials on “when to yeet your crypto.”

  • That magical panic-sell button? It coincides with Bitcoin coming up on the ever-elusive six-figure mark. If you believed in round numbers being lucky—congrats, you’re in good company.

  • Bulls may need more Red Bull. Order books look thinner than my patience for another “Is crypto dead?” headline.

File this under Things That Make Markets Twitchy: Bitcoin (BTC) is practically begging the old guard to start dumping their coins if prices creep any higher, according to data nerds at Glassnode.

In their latest newsletter, “The Week Onchain”—which you should totally read if you also enjoy graphs and existential dread—researchers say the old-timey HODL crowd is glancing at nearly 350% unrealized profits. Yes, that’s three-and-a-half times your money. Please pause for dramatic effect.

Will Bitcoin’s Diamond Hands Finally Crack? đŸ€”

With Bitcoin strutting back up to multi-month highs, even the toughest HODLers are staring at their wallets wondering, “Would I rather be rich or be just another LinkedIn influencer?”

Glassnode’s crystal ball says that when these folks hit a 350% profit—aka when Bitcoin is basically $100K—the urge to cash out gets extremely real. Let’s be honest: if you were up 350%, you’d be eyeing cruise ship catalogs, too.

Here’s the spicy math: for these ancient holders (Bitcoin years = dog years + existential dread), the big sell-filled fireworks zone is $99.9k per BTC. If bullish buyers can’t step up with matching enthusiasm (or at least matching credit line), the market might just start playing “Hello Darkness, My Old Friend.”

“Reconciling this information with the spot price, the average LTH is expected to hit a 350% profit margin at the $99.9k level. As such, we can anticipate an uptick in sell-side pressure as the market approaches this zone, making it an area that will likely require substantial buy-side demand to absorb the distribution, and sustain upwards momentum.”

Traders Are Getting Sweaty Palms—And Not Just From Their Monster Energy Drinks

Bitcoin hit $97,500 this week, which is about as close as you can get to bragging about six figures at brunch without actually getting there. But traders are still unconvinced we’re in classic bull territory—they’ve clearly been burned before.

TheKingfisher, which is either a trader or a mysterious aquatic bird with a Robinhood account, warns that there’s a massive wall of long liquidations under ~$91k and very little shorting action above $96.6k. Translation: this market could do a magic trick and disappear upwards momentum faster than your New Year’s resolutions.

“Huge imbalance suggests potential downside magnet is strong. High risk for longs near current levels. Upside fuel looks thin for now.”

Meanwhile, Glassnode is out here staring at the 111-day SMA and the price faith of the short-term crew (who probably still think Dogecoin will buy them a Tesla one day).

Price just zipped above these sacred numbers and is attempting to settle in. If it pulls it off, maybe we’ll get that moon mission. But if things go south from here, investors could find themselves back in the land of “unrealized losses” and sad memes.

“However, these are levels that must be broken and held for further price appreciation, as a rejection of this level would push the price back into bearish territory, and return many investors to a state of meaningful unrealized loss.”

So if you hear popping sounds, it’s either champagne corks, bubble wrap, or maybe just the sound of hopes and dreams being cashed out.

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2025-05-02 14:03