BTC to $86K?! 🤑 Don’t Get Your Hopes Up!

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Ah, Bitcoin… that fickle mistress. Still clinging to life, it seems, despite the relentless pressure of macroeconomic woes. One moment it’s soaring from the depths of near $75,000, the next, analysts are scratching their heads, wondering if this is truly the dawn of a new era, or just another fool’s errand. One wonders if they have anything better to do. 🤔

Peter Brandt, that sage of the trading world, scoffs at the mere suggestion of trendlines. “Least significant,” he declares with the gravitas of a seasoned gambler. A trendline violation, he insists, means nothing. Absolutely nothing! Such certainty! It’s almost… comforting in its futility. 😌

“Of all chart construction, trendlines are the LEAST significant. A trendline violation does NOT signify a transition of the BTC trend. Sorry.”

But wait! There’s Kevin Svenson, with his cautious optimism. A weekly RSI breakout? Could this be the miracle we’ve all been waiting for? “Among the most reliable macro breakout indicators,” he claims. One almost dares to hope, to dream of riches beyond measure… almost. 🙄

Of course, it all boils down to supply and demand, doesn’t it? The eternal dance of buyers and sellers. Both sides are stirring, like slumbering giants, but are they truly awake? And can they overcome that formidable wall of resistance at $86,000? Only time, that cruel mistress, will tell. ⏳

Bitcoin demand — Are there early signs of recovery?

CryptoQuant whispers of a recovery in Bitcoin’s apparent demand, measured by the net difference between exchange inflows and outflows. A glimmer of hope in the darkness. But, they caution, don’t get ahead of yourselves! Remember the 2021 cycle peak? Similar conditions, similar hopes, all dashed upon the rocks of reality. 😂

This uptick in demand may simply be a momentary pause in the relentless selling pressure. A brief respite before the storm. Time and confirmation are needed. Patience, my friends, patience. A virtue, or a curse? 🤷

From a trader’s perspective, things look rather grim. Bitcoin daily trade volumes languish, a mere shadow of their former glory. Comparisons to the past are made, but the current volume dynamics suggest a distinct lack of enthusiasm. Perhaps everyone’s gone to the dacha for the summer. 🏖️

Institutional investors, those paragons of wisdom, confirm the low demand trend. Outflows from spot BTC ETFs continue, a testament to the prevailing mood of caution. Yet, trading volumes remain relatively high, suggesting that some appetite for Bitcoin persists. A flicker of hope, perhaps, or just a stubborn refusal to admit defeat? 🤔

Related: Crypto in a bear market, rebound likely in Q3 — Coinbase

Bitcoin supply — Will liquidity return?

On the supply side, liquidity remains as scarce as a decent cup of coffee in this whole affair. Realized cap growth has slowed, indicating a lack of new capital entering the Bitcoin network. “Well below typical bull market thresholds,” they say. As if we needed reminding. ☕

The BTC balance on exchanges has dwindled to its lowest level since November 2018. A sign of scarcity, or simply a lack of interest? The mystery deepens. 🕵️

But fear not! Michael van de Poppe, that beacon of hope, points to the rising M2 Supply. A correlation, a lag, and a potential rally to an ATH! Could this be the answer? A rise in CNH/USD, a fall in Yields, a fall in Gold, a fall in DXY, and a rise in Altcoins! The world turned upside down! Or perhaps just a fanciful dream. 😴

Even if bullish momentum returns, Bitcoin must conquer that formidable resistance zone between $86,300 and $86,500. A battle of wills, a test of strength. Victory or defeat? The suspense is unbearable! 😫

Alphractal adds another layer of complexity, with its Alpha Price Chart and its intricate calculations. The conclusion? Bitcoin must break above $86,300 to restore short-term bullish sentiment. If it fails, support levels lie at $73,900 and $64,700. The stakes are high, the risks are great. 😟

Overall, calling a trend reversal at this stage may be, shall we say, a tad premature. Liquidity remains thin, macroeconomic headwinds persist, and investors remain cautious. Still, Bitcoin’s resilience above $80,000 signals strong support from long-term holders. A decisive breakout above $86,300 could shift market sentiment—and, in a best-case scenario, ignite a new rally. But such a move must be backed by spot market volume, not just leverage-driven activity. So, let us wait, let us watch, and let us not get our hopes up too high. After all, disappointment is the natural state of man. 😔

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2025-04-16 23:53