Bitcoin’s Recovery Crumbles: Whales, Profits, and Funds Abandon Ship

by

<a href="https://pricpr.com/btc-usd/">Bitcoin</a>’s Recovery Might Have Lost the Three Pillars Holding It Up

Key Takeaways:

  • Whale spot orders vanished after $80K rejection.
  • aNUPL flipped red again at mid-$70Ks.
  • Fund Holdings dropped 70K BTC since April peak.
  • Gray dominance replaced green since May 2026.
  • -0.15 aNUPL could confirm 2022-style capitulation.

Three Signals, One Problem

As of late May 2026, Bitcoin is trading around $74,000. While this might seem like a period of stability after some recent volatility – including a drop from $125,000 earlier in the year, a rebound to $90,000, and then another dip – the situation could be more delicate than it appears. Three key pieces of data from the Bitcoin network suggest potential weakness, not because any one of them is alarming on its own, but because they all indicate the same thing at the same time.

Whales Bought the Bottom. Then They Left.

The Spot Average Order Size indicator helps identify who is driving activity in the market, distinguishing between large institutional investors, individual retail traders, and general market fluctuations. It uses color-coding: green signifies large-scale buying, red represents retail trading, and gray indicates neither. From February to April 2026, as Bitcoin’s price rose from around $60,000 to $80,000, the indicator showed mostly green, meaning big investors were primarily responsible for the price increase. However, this trend seems to have changed.

Since May, Bitcoin’s price has plateaued around $80,000 and then begun to fall, with less buying pressure apparent. Selling activity has increased, and while large investors (‘whales’) aren’t dumping their holdings, they’ve also stopped actively supporting the price. This suggests there may not be significant institutional investment currently preventing further price declines.

We’ve seen this happen before. Back in January 2023, a strong build-up of buying activity between $15,000 and $20,000 signaled the start of a significant price increase. Similarly, near the peak of the last market cycle, a rush of buying around $90,000 was followed by a price drop to the $60,000s. Currently, the data suggests that large investors (“whales”) finished buying near the recent low of $60,000 and have since paused. There isn’t much support from these large investors between $70,000 and $80,000. Buying now, before strong buying activity returns, could mean getting in before the major players who drive market movements.

The Profit Recovery Failed

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss shows the overall profit or loss of all Bitcoin investors. If the number is positive, most investors are currently making a profit. When it turns negative, more investors are holding Bitcoin that’s worth less than what they originally paid for it. The point where this shifts – from positive to negative, or vice versa – often provides valuable insights for understanding market trends.

Following Bitcoin’s drop from around $125,000 to the $60,000s, the aNUPL indicator turned negative. A price increase to around $90,000 in May briefly brought it back into positive territory, suggesting the overall market was profitable again. However, that improvement didn’t last. Now that the price is back in the $70,000s, the aNUPL has fallen negative once more, and it appears the recent attempt at a recovery has failed.

As a researcher, I’m particularly interested in this recent market downturn because of what history tells us. We’ve seen extended periods of negative aNUPL readings – those dips toward -0.4 in 2018 and mid-2022 – reliably signal the bottom of market cycles. Typically, this means everyone who was going to sell has, the market hits a true low, and that sets the stage for a sustained recovery. However, this time feels different. It seems like we might see a quick reversal – a brief period of gains followed by another drop within weeks. We actually saw this happen twice in 2023, right after the market started recovering from its lows. Both times, those quick reversals were followed by more price swings before a real, lasting rally could begin.

Currently, the biggest concern is that the recent market downturn will continue and worsen instead of quickly recovering. If the aNUPL (a measure of market health) falls to -0.15 or even lower, to -0.35, the market might abandon the patterns seen earlier in 2023 and revert to the bearish trends of 2022. We should have a better understanding of which scenario is unfolding over the next few weeks.

Funds Were Buying in April. They Are Selling Now.

CryptoQuant’s data on fund holdings provides insight into how institutional investors are behaving. These funds were actively buying Bitcoin up until April 2026, increasing their total holdings to around 1.37 million BTC as the price reached its highest point. Since then, their holdings have decreased significantly to 1.3 million BTC, coinciding with a price around $74,000 and a continuing downward trend.

The difference between price and what funds are holding is important. For much of the last year, these two moved together. But recently, they’ve started to diverge – funds are selling holdings while the price stays steady or only falls slightly. This suggests large investors are actively selling, not just passively holding. CryptoQuant notes this selling is likely hindering any price recovery.

This might not be accumulation being paused. It could be distribution.

What Needs to Change

Each of these three indicators has a specific price level that suggests a potential trend change. Whale spot activity typically needs to see a strengthening of green density, which historically has happened when Bitcoin is between $60,000 and $65,000 – around the same price where large institutional investors previously started buying. Trying to anticipate this signal before it appears hasn’t been very successful in past market cycles.

aNUPL could either stay close to zero and bounce back quickly, suggesting a repeat of last year’s temporary drop, or it could fall much further before truly hitting its lowest point. A small dip would likely resolve quickly, while a larger drop to -0.15 or lower might mean a longer recovery period before prices can sustainably increase.

For investment funds to improve, the amount of money held in them needs to stop decreasing and start growing again. Currently, it looks like large investors are taking money *out* of funds instead of putting more in.

The price rebounded strongly from around $60,000, with large investors leading the way, as confirmed by market data. Funds continued to buy throughout April, but sustaining the rally to reach a new high depended on those same investors continuing to participate. They didn’t. The price increase lost momentum, opportunities for profit diminished, and selling may have begun. Whether the market will now stabilize and find support at a lower level, or experience a more significant downturn, will likely depend on how much these indicators worsen from this point forward.

This article is for informational purposes only and shouldn’t be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com doesn’t recommend any particular investment or cryptocurrency. Before making any investment decisions, be sure to do your own research and talk to a qualified financial advisor.

Read More

2026-05-30 19:52