color: var(color-red-500) – Currency Forecast

<a href="https://jpyxx.com/ton-usd/">TON</a>’s Distribution Question: Can Telegram-Linked Crypto Survive Weak Market Liquidity?

Toncoin recently saw a price increase, bringing The Open Network (TON) back into the news. However, it’s unclear if the way the token is distributed and how the market is structured will allow for long-term growth. While Telegram announced changes in May 2026 to how TON is governed and how fees work, trading activity on the network remains lower than it used to be.

Telegram founder Pavel Durov announced on May 4, 2026, that network fees were drastically reduced – almost to nothing. Telegram itself will also take over as the biggest validator for the TON network, a change outlined in a plan called ‘MTONGA’ (CoinDesk). Following this announcement, the value of Toncoin jumped around 36-37% within 24 hours, peaking at approximately $1.88-$1.90 on May 5 (Coin360).

Despite outward appearances, the amount of value currently locked into the TON blockchain is relatively low. Data from DefiLlama shows the total value locked was around $69–71 million in early May 2026, a significant drop from a peak of around $800 million in 2024. Daily trading volume on decentralized exchanges is about $4.5 million, and the network generates around $2,800 in fees each day. Additionally, Telegram is planning to stake 2.2 million TON, positioning itself as a major validator on the network.

Quick Answer

In the first half of 2026, I observed that reductions in transaction fees and changes among validators on the TON network were attracting traders, although overall trading volume still seemed low. While centralized exchanges handled moderate-sized trades well, getting orders filled directly on the blockchain required careful monitoring and limits on price slippage. Developers I spoke with appreciated the potential of Telegram integration, but were concerned about the limited availability of stablecoins and the concentration of power in governance. The most successful projects focused on improving how TON distributes its assets – coordinating market makers, custodians, and data analysis – rather than simply hoping for positive news coverage. — Ethan Caldwell

TON is currently able to handle limited trading activity, but its long-term success depends on making the token more widely available. This means increasing the amount available for trading, creating larger on-chain trading pools, and establishing a reliable market structure to convert Telegram’s large user base into lasting value. Recent changes like reduced fees and adjustments to validators could encourage more people to use TON, but also create a risk of centralization, which needs to be addressed with open and fair management and rewards.

Fees reportedly dropped 6× under MTONGA; usage could rise if app experiences improve (CoinDesk).
On-chain depth is thin: TVL ~ $70M and ~24h DEX volume ~$4.5M in early May 2026 (DeFiLlama).
Telegram’s planned ~2.2M TON stake concentrates influence while tradable liquidity is limited (Coin360).
Short-term price spikes don’t solve distribution; builders and treasuries need predictable liquidity and risk controls.

What does “distribution” mean for TON holders in practice?

When people discuss how Toncoin is distributed, they’re interested in more than just the total amount available. They want to know how much is actually being traded, how many different people own it, and if it’s easy to buy and sell on exchanges they use. A network might *seem* valuable based on its total potential supply, but it can feel difficult to trade if a large portion of the tokens are locked up, held by a few people, or aren’t being used.

How tokens are distributed impacts how smoothly transactions go and how well they’re executed. When a small number of holders control a large portion of the tokens, and there isn’t much available on exchanges, large trades can significantly affect the price. Everyday users experience this when moving tokens to apps on TON or swapping between currencies on exchanges with limited funds. These issues can hinder growth, discourage developers who need reliable costs, and limit investment from larger institutions.

Spreading liquidity across many different platforms is also crucial. It’s not enough to just have trading volume on one or two exchanges; we need consistent, reliable trading depth across all major platforms, including market makers and ways to buy crypto with traditional money. The future success of TON relies on how quickly providers of liquidity, storage, and integration services can expand their support while keeping everything secure.

How does Telegram’s MTONGA shift alter incentives and risks?

MTONGA significantly lowers transaction fees on Telegram – by about six times, bringing them close to zero. Telegram also intends to become the primary validator on the TON blockchain, taking over from the TON Foundation. To support this, they plan to stake around 2.2 million TON tokens (according to CoinDesk and Coin360).

Reducing transaction fees within Telegram could make using mini-apps, bots, and payments much smoother. With potentially very low costs for millions of users, it would be easier to send tips, manage subscriptions, and make small purchases. This could turn Telegram into a powerful platform for driving activity on blockchain networks – essentially, converting its large audience into active users of on-chain services.

A key challenge is how power is distributed. If the service delivering messages also becomes the most powerful validator, it can speed things up and allow the network to grow, but it also creates concerns about fairness and potential control. Plus, if transaction fees are very low and validators rely on other sources of income, the long-term viability of the system depends on design decisions that haven’t been proven effective within TON’s current market conditions.

Focusing validation efforts too much in one place can speed up development, but it also increases the risk of small problems or unexpected changes causing major disruptions. Spreading out staking and openly reviewing validator rules are essential ways to reduce these risks.

Is TON’s DeFi liquidity too thin for large orders right now?

Currently, the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem on TON has limited liquidity. As of early May 2026, data from DeFiLlama shows around $69–71 million in total value locked (TVL) and $4.5 million in daily trading volume on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), with chain fees around $2.8k per day. These numbers are relatively small compared to more established DeFi networks. Because of this, large trades on the TON blockchain may experience significant price impact (slippage) or require complex order routing to execute efficiently.

Overall liquidity comes from a mix of sources, including decentralized exchanges (on-chain pools), traditional exchanges (order books), market makers, and over-the-counter trading. Some traders might find better liquidity outside of the blockchain, especially for simple TON purchases. The core problem is that if the blockchain’s own decentralized exchanges don’t have much trading volume, applications built on the chain (like automated trading or DeFi services) can experience delays or difficulties, even if trading on traditional exchanges seems okay.

With lower fees thanks to MTONGA and Telegram encouraging more apps to run directly on the blockchain, we could see more trading activity on decentralized exchanges. However, until the total value locked in, the amount of stablecoins available, and the number of market makers increase, executing large trades on the blockchain will still require careful planning.

Here’s a helpful tip for trading: When markets are slow, break up your larger orders into smaller ones. Choose limit orders or time-weighted average price (TWAP) execution when possible, and keep an eye on how much liquidity is available on different decentralized exchanges (DEXs). It’s best to avoid transferring assets between chains or swapping tokens right after major news events, as this can lead to poor prices due to fragmented liquidity.

Where could sustainable demand come from beyond speculation?

Messaging apps can thrive financially if they turn conversations into opportunities for users to spend money. This could include features like tipping content creators, exclusive groups requiring subscriptions, simple invoicing for freelancers, rewards programs, and paying for content as you go.

MTONGA’s lower fees make it suitable for various applications. However, widespread use will likely require strong support for stablecoins, secure storage solutions, and business-friendly wallets that can handle funds across different platforms. If Telegram’s app platform can combine a user-friendly experience with a dependable infrastructure, TON could stand out by leveraging its social network reach, something other blockchain platforms don’t have.

For lasting success, simply having users isn’t enough. Developers require helpful tools, efficient search capabilities, data insights, and a reliable way to earn rewards. Users need to be confident in the quality of content and know what fees to expect. Finally, the network must remain impartial so that others feel safe building new products without being overly dependent on Telegram’s future plans.

How does TON before vs. after MTONGA compare?

It’s most reliable to look at clear, publicly available changes instead of focusing on what people are saying about prices. Here’s a look at what happened around the time of the MTONGA announcement.

Dimension
Before MTONGA
After MTONGA (announced)

Transaction Fees
Higher, with meaningful friction for micro-transactions
Reported ~6× reduction to near zero (CoinDesk)

Validator Leadership
Foundation-led influence
Telegram to assume “largest validator” role (CoinDesk)

Staking Concentration
More distributed among existing validators
Telegram reportedly plans to stake ~2.2M TON (Coin360)

Market Reaction
Slower growth in prior weeks
+36–37% in ~24h post-announcement; highs near $1.88–$1.90 on May 5 (Coin360)

On-Chain Depth
TVL far below 2024 peaks; modest DEX activity
Early May TVL ~ $69–71M; ~24h DEX volume ~ $4.5M; fees ~ $2.8k (DeFiLlama)

Overall, lower transaction fees and a strong platform operator could significantly boost activity on TON. However, the amount of available trading volume is currently limited. If applications on TON become popular faster than the amount of trading activity increases, users might experience price fluctuations and difficulties executing trades until more market participants – like professional traders, project funds, and stablecoin providers – join and increase liquidity.

What should traders and treasuries watch before sizing exposure in 2026?

Understanding how a market works is crucial, whether you’re an individual trader or part of a team at a crypto project. Don’t just react to news – do your research. Here’s a helpful guide to assess risks related to TON, especially when trading volume is low.

Venue depth: Check order books and spreads across multiple CEXs; compare with on-chain pool depth for your pairs.
Execution plan: Use staged or algorithmic orders for size; pre-test slippage with small “canary” trades during different market hours.
Stablecoin rails: Confirm availability, transfer limits, and redemption pathways; avoid single-issuer concentration.
Custody & staking: Verify institutional custody support, staking lock-ups, unbonding periods, and slashing parameters.
Bridge risk: If bridging into TON, review security audits, historical incidents, and insurance coverage (if any).
Governance signals: Track validator distribution, Telegram’s policy updates, and any formal transparency reports.
Treasury controls: Separate hot/cold wallets, enforce role-based access, and define incident response for frozen or delayed transfers.

Generally, base how much you invest on the strength of the system supporting the asset, not just its price changes. If you’re building a platform, focus on making things easy for users, especially when there isn’t much activity – things like grouping transactions together, allowing account recovery through social connections, and letting people easily add funds with traditional currency.

Common Mistakes

Chasing announcement spikes: Price jumps can outpace liquidity, increasing slippage and reversal risk. Use limit orders and wait for spreads to normalize.
Assuming Telegram guarantees adoption: Distribution isn’t the same as conversion. Validate real user flows and retention before scaling spend.
Ignoring validator concentration: A single dominant validator increases correlated risk. Monitor validator sets and diversify staking where possible.
Overlooking stablecoin constraints: Thin stablecoin float can impair exits during stress. Maintain alternative routes and buffers.
Neglecting bridge security: Bridges are frequent attack vectors. Prefer native rails or well-audited connectors with proven track records.
Forgetting treasury hygiene: Mixing operational and speculative funds can magnify drawdowns. Segment wallets and enforce policies.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Do near-zero fees undermine security or sustainability?

Very low transaction fees make things easier for users, but they change how validators earn money. If validators primarily rely on newly created tokens or extra payments, their financial health will depend on how many tokens are issued and any rewards offered outside of the blockchain itself. To make sure this system works long-term with such low fees, it’s important to keep a close eye on how actively validators are participating, if they’re missing any blocks, and if there are any changes to the rewards they receive.

If Telegram becomes the largest validator, is TON still decentralized?

Decentralization isn’t an all-or-nothing concept – it exists on a scale. While one validator might be the largest, it doesn’t remove the need for others. However, a dominant validator can heavily influence how the network operates and where it’s headed. To ensure fairness as the system expands, it’s important to have open reports, independent validators with significant investment, and clear rules about potential conflicts of interest.

Does low TVL mean price must fall?

As a crypto investor, I’ve learned that price and Total Value Locked (TVL) don’t always move in sync. Price often shows what people *expect* to happen and how much of a coin is actually available to trade. TVL, on the other hand, shows how much money is actively being used within projects on the blockchain. A blockchain can gain momentum based on hype or changes in who’s holding tokens, even if TVL doesn’t immediately reflect that. Ideally, as more people actually *use* a chain, both TVL and trading volume should increase. But if TVL stays low while the price goes up, that’s a red flag – it suggests the value might not be sustainable in the long run.

How can I route a large TON trade without moving the market?

First, thoroughly research potential trading venues. Then, divide your trading strategy across different options: centralized exchanges (CEX) spot pairs, direct blockchain transactions (on-chain routes), and, if possible, request for quote/over-the-counter (RFQ/OTC) trading. Use algorithms that prioritize time or seek out liquidity, and avoid trading during periods of low activity. Always set a maximum acceptable price slippage beforehand. Before executing large trades, test your strategy with small test orders.

What should developers building Telegram mini-apps on TON prioritize?

Make the user experience simple by hiding the complicated parts of blockchain technology. This means using things like secure session keys, grouping actions together, prioritizing stablecoins, and clearly showing all fees. Also, track how well your chat interface leads to actual blockchain transactions using data and analytics, and always use well-tested components. Finally, make sure users can recover their accounts if something goes wrong.

Could regulators scrutinize a messenger-linked token more closely?

It’s definitely possible that a popular messaging app which also plays a role in a Layer 1 blockchain could face scrutiny from regulators in various countries. Projects building such apps should be ready with systems for verifying user identities (KYC/AML), safeguards for consumers, and clear, understandable rules. Users should stay informed about local laws and any changes the platform makes.

Is it better to stake or to keep liquidity ready?

What’s best for you depends on what you’re trying to achieve. Staking can help you earn rewards, but it might also mean your funds are temporarily unavailable when you need them. Consider how long you plan to hold your assets, how much risk you’re comfortable with, and whether you might need access to cash. Also, before staking, check how trustworthy the staking provider is.

2026-05-30 10:38