Bitcoin’s Sticky Situation: $3.7B Options Expiry Leaves Traders in a Max Pain Pickle

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Egad, old chap! The Bitcoin price, as of 10:15 a.m. EST on May 25, 2026, was perched at a rather precarious $77,343 per coin. It’s neither here nor there, you see-sitting below the heaviest options strike concentrations but snugly within the max pain range. Quite the conundrum for the options writers at Deribit, Binance, and OKX, who’ve been gravitating toward this range like a moth to a particularly lucrative flame all week.

  • Key Takeaways (or, as I like to call them, the bits that matter):

  • Bitcoin futures OI across all exchanges has reached a staggering $54.94B, with CME holding a not-insignificant 16.97% at $9.33B. Jolly good show, what?
  • Options calls are leading puts 56.79% to 43.21% on Deribit, signaling a modestly bullish positioning on May 25. Not quite a roaring bull, but more of a contented cow, if you will.
  • Max pain for the May 29 Deribit expiry is nestled near $76K-$79K, with the spot price at $77,343. Right in the thick of it, old bean.

Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Holds at $54.9B, Still a Far Cry from the 2025 Peak

On Monday, total bitcoin futures open interest (OI) across all tracked exchanges stood at 710,150 BTC, worth $54.94 billion, according to Coinglass data. CME, the old stalwart, ranked first by dollar value at $9.33 billion, representing 16.97% of the total market despite holding only 120,570 BTC in open contracts. Binance, not to be outdone, trailed close behind with $10.41 billion and 134,570 BTC, giving it the largest share by coin count at 18.94%. Quite the rivalry, eh?

OKX, Bybit, Gate, and Hyperliquid rounded out the top six, with the full market showing a 24-hour OI change of negative 0.59%. Futures open interest in USD terms peaked in late October 2025 near $100 billion when bitcoin approached $126,000. It then fell sharper than a Jeeves quip as the price corrected through late 2025 and into early 2026.

Bitcoin futures data via Coinglass on May 25, 2026. Quite the chart, what?

Statistics show a significant trough in February 2026 before a measured recovery that brought OI back into the $55-$65 billion range alongside a spot price recovery toward $80,000. The current level sits roughly $30 billion below the cycle peak, even as the price has reclaimed the mid-$70s range. A bit like a chap who’s lost his top hat but still manages to look dapper.

CME Bitcoin Options Remain Put-Heavy, Max Pain Converges Around May 29 Expiry

On the options side, calls held a 56.79% edge over puts by open interest as of Monday morning, with 267,983.95 BTC in call OI against 203,904.95 BTC in put OI across all tracked venues. The 24-hour volume split was nearly even-calls at 50.15% versus puts at 49.85%. Short-term directional conviction is as thin as a Wooster plot, though the longer-term book leans bullish.

The most active open interest contract on Deribit was the May 29 $80,000 call, carrying 7,856 BTC. That strike sits roughly $2,657 above the current spot, making it out-of-the-money heading into Friday’s expiry. Rather like betting on a three-legged horse, if you ask me. The December 2026 $120,000 call ranked second with 7,063.3 BTC, indicating some traders are betting on a significant price move before year-end. Bold move, Cotton.

The December 2026 $60,000 put was the third-largest position at 6,496.2 BTC, reflecting serious hedging activity against a downside scenario. Max pain calculations across exchanges show notable alignment. Deribit’s max pain curve sits between $76,000 and $79,000 for the May 29 expiry, with $3.7 billion in notional value set to expire Thursday. Binance shows a similar near-term max pain in the $76,000-$78,000 band before climbing sharply toward $80,000 for the June 26 contract. OKX’s curve rises steadily through June 2026 before pulling back and then spiking near $80,000 for the March 2027 expiration, where notional value approaches $1.2 billion. Quite the rollercoaster, eh?

The 24-hour volume rankings on Deribit showed the most active trading concentrated in near-term Bybit contracts. The Bybit BTC-26MAY26-$78,500-C-USDT led all pairs with 309.85 BTC in volume, followed by the $78,000 call at 306.26 BTC and the $77,500 call at 299.79 BTC. A $76,000 put on Bybit ranked fourth at 290.08 BTC, and Deribit’s June 26 $85,000 call placed fifth at 279.5 BTC. The clustering near current spot levels confirms traders are paying close attention to the $77,000-$79,000 range. Quite the huddle, what?

CME’s options structure tells a different story than the retail-dominated platforms. CryptoQuant data shows CME options OI stacked by expiration has contracted sharply from its November 2025 peak of roughly 70,000 BTC, with the near-term 1-2 month expiration bucket now dominating what remains. By position, puts have consistently outweighed calls in CME’s book throughout 2025 and into 2026-a pattern that reflects institutional traders using options primarily as downside protection rather than speculative leverage. Rather sensible, if you ask me.

Kucoin posted the most extreme OI-to-volume ratio at 6.6362, meaning its 24-hour volume represented more than six times its open interest, a sign of elevated short-term churn relative to held positions. BingX showed the sharpest 24-hour OI decline at negative 23.09%, while Bybit stood out with a 2.65% 24-hour OI increase, the largest gain among the top exchanges. Quite the mixed bag, eh?

With the spot at $77,343 and max pain sitting right in that zone heading into the May 29 expiry, options writers have reason to hold steady. Whether that gravitational pull holds through Thursday, or whether a catalyst breaks the range and forces a scramble, is the question traders are pricing into every call and put on the tape. Rather like waiting for Bertie to finally propose to Madeline-will he, won’t he?

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2026-05-25 19:28