Crypto analyst Merlijn the Trader is warning that a historical pattern suggests Bitcoin (BTC) could be headed for a price drop. He’s noticed this pattern before major crashes, and it’s typically led to an average 15% decrease in BTC’s value. Now that the pattern is appearing again, he believes a significant price correction may be coming for Bitcoin.
Analyst Calls For Late-Year Bitcoin Price Bottom
On May 19th, a trader known as Merlijn the Trader posted on X, cautioning investors that Bitcoin prices might soon fall sharply. He highlighted a recurring pattern on a price chart that has appeared in similar years since 2018, suggesting a potential downturn.
The analyst notes a predictable pattern with Bitcoin: prices typically fall in the first quarter of the year, then bounce back and rise in the second quarter. After this recovery, a significant price drop happens, usually resulting in the lowest price of the year towards the end of the year.
This pattern was first noticed in 2018. Back then, Bitcoin’s price dropped sharply by 25% in January, but it recovered strongly with a 33% increase around April. This recovery didn’t last, and the price fell again by 19% in May, eventually reaching its lowest point for the year in December.
The pattern continued in 2022. Bitcoin’s price dropped 17% in the first quarter, briefly recovered by over 5% in March, then fell another 16% in April. It eventually hit its lowest point for the cycle in November.
Currently, a trader known as Merlijn believes Bitcoin’s price movements are starting to resemble a pattern seen in the past. He’s observed that Bitcoin recently dropped sharply by 23% in the first quarter of the year, but then rebounded with a 14% increase from March to April 2026.
The recent upward trend in Bitcoin seems to be losing steam, and May has already brought increased price swings and a drop in value. Based on past patterns, trader Merlijn predicts Bitcoin could reach its lowest point for the year sometime between November and December. Although he hasn’t specified an exact price target, he believes a significant price drop is likely to happen soon.
BTC Forecasted To Crash As Low As $37,000
Other cryptocurrency analysts, like Chiefy, also seem to think Bitcoin’s price will likely fall. In a recent post on X, Chiefy highlighted historical patterns and chart formations, suggesting Bitcoin is currently mirroring a trend that has previously led to price declines and dampened optimism in the market.
According to Chiefy, a specific price chart pattern called “Head & Shoulders” has appeared, signaling a potential downturn for Bitcoin. He believes the market is now testing this pattern and forecasts a possible price drop to $37,000. Considering Bitcoin is currently valued at over $77,000, this would mean a loss of more than 52% of its value.
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2026-05-23 00:20