Bitcoin is currently trading around $78,000 after failing to break through the $82,000 mark on Friday, causing prices to dip. While Bitcoin has seen gains over the past five weeks, many analysts believe it’s now entering a period of significant price decline, potentially reaching a new low. Crypto Chan, a market analyst on X, points to historical data suggesting Bitcoin may fall further before finding a stable price level.
Bitcoin MVRV Mirrors 2018 Bear Market
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio helps determine if an asset is over or undervalued. A ratio over 1 generally suggests overvaluation, while a ratio under 1 suggests undervaluation.
On May 16th, a crypto analyst known as Crypto Chan pointed out that Bitcoin’s current MVRV ratio is showing a pattern similar to the 2018 bear market. In 2018, Bitcoin experienced a final price drop after the MVRV ratio first fell to around 1.15, briefly rose to 1.63, and then ultimately declined to its lowest point.
18年熊市最后一跌前，比特币 MVRV 最低跌至 1.15，之后最高反弹 1.63
本轮熊市截至目前，比特币 MVRV 最低跌至 1.14，之后最高反弹 1.51
— CryptoChan (@0xCryptoChan) May 17, 2026
Bitcoin’s MVRV metric previously hit 1.14 at the low point of the last price cycle, around $60,000. Since then, the price has increased to $82,000, and the MVRV ratio has risen to 1.51. Looking at past trends, this pattern suggests Bitcoin’s price might fall again soon.
How Low Could BTC Go?
As a researcher, I’m observing a growing consensus that Bitcoin might be heading lower. Along with Crypto Chan, I’m seeing analysis suggesting the recent price struggles around $82,000 could signal a downturn. Market analyst Kabuki, in a recent post, believes Bitcoin is reacting to a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern on its weekly chart.
Kabuki’s analysis predicts a drop to $70,000 in the short term, and potentially as low as $41,000 by June. They anticipate support levels around $61,000 and $47,000, with a possible temporary bounce to $55,000 before a final push down to that $41,000 bottom.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $78,044, down slightly by 0.51% over the last day. Even with this potential correction, it remains the largest cryptocurrency, with a market cap of $1.56 trillion, and ranks as the 12th largest asset globally.
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2026-05-17 21:57