Why bitcoin’s recent climb to $80,000 might just be a temporary liquidity squeeze

by

Why <a href="https://jpyeur.com/btc-usd/">bitcoin</a>’s recent climb to $80,000 might just be a temporary liquidity squeezeMarkets

What to know:

  • Onchain metrics for bitcoin are improving, but elevated realized losses of about $479 million a day signal that a durable recovery is not yet confirmed.
  • A large short-gamma options cluster around $82,000 is likely to amplify volatility and briefly squeeze prices higher, but may then act as resistance rather than support for a sustained rally.
  • Institutional demand has weakened sharply, with U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs seeing a $635 million single-day outflow and corporate purchases dropping 80 percent, as markets brace for a “higher for longer” interest-rate environment under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

Bitcoin is showing promising signs based on its on-chain data – the best it’s looked since early February. However, according to a recent Bitfinex analysis shared with CoinDesk, current selling activity and the way people are trading derivatives suggest that reaching new price peaks won’t be straightforward.

Bitcoin holders who’ve kept their coins for a long time – and have seen their holdings grow to almost 4 million tokens since the end of 2025 – are now starting to cash out around $180 million in profits each day. This comes after Bitcoin hit a high of over $82,000 on May 11th, then dipped to the $79,000 range by Thursday.

From my analysis, the recent selling activity appears to be within a normal range compared to previous market cycles, indicating it’s currently under control. However, my main concern remains the daily realized losses, which are still averaging around $479 million. Typically, during calmer periods, we see this figure closer to $200 million. I believe a sustained drop in daily losses back to that $200 million level will be a key indicator that the onchain recovery is truly solidifying.

The gamma trap

A potential issue called a “gamma trap” is adding to the cautious view of the market. Analysis from Glassnode shows about $2 billion worth of options contracts are concentrated around the $82,000 price level. Because of this, when Bitcoin’s price fluctuates near $82,000, traders who manage these contracts will likely take actions to protect their investments, which could initially increase price swings and possibly push the price toward $82,000, according to Bitfinex.

According to AdLunam co-founder Jason Fernandes, the current concentration of gamma is creating a misleading impression in the market. He explained to CoinDesk that while dealer hedging might initially push prices higher, this same activity can later hold them back. Essentially, gamma is currently exaggerating price movements, but isn’t proving they’re sustainable.

Although data on the blockchain indicates positive trends, activity from corporate buyers has significantly decreased. Last week saw an 80% reduction in Bitcoin purchases by major companies compared to the previous month, suggesting they are currently holding back.

A major red flag is waving

According to Fernandes, the fact that Bitcoin’s price is going up while institutional investors are actually selling is a worrying sign. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs experienced a significant $635 million outflow on May 13th – the biggest one-day drop since January.

According to market analyst Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, the recent price range between $79,000 and $85,000 appears to be a temporary pause rather than a peak, suggesting prices may continue to rise.

Aside from the specific details of market analysis, the overall economic situation continues to be a challenge. On May 13th, Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the new head of the Federal Reserve, coinciding with an increase in inflation to 3.8%. According to Fernandes, investors are now anticipating that interest rates will stay elevated for an extended period.

According to Fernandes, Kevin Warsh doesn’t anticipate any interest rate cuts this year, and rates might even go up. Fernandes also believes Bitcoin won’t hit a new all-time high unless there’s a major shift in global political events.

As a researcher following Bitfinex, I’ve observed significant losses recently, and the lack of backing from corporations led to an 80% decrease in buying last week. Based on this, our team anticipates a rapid price increase, potentially reaching $82,000 to $84,000, before settling into a more stable period.

Fernandes believes the current market situation resembles a near-total surrender. Until the market fully absorbs the $479 million in daily losses and investors regain confidence, the $85,000 level will likely be the key price point where buyers and sellers fiercely compete.

Read More

2026-05-14 16:57