Speaking at Consensus Miami 2026, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted Bitcoin could hit $125,000 before the year is out, but cautioned that most altcoins are likely to collapse.
However, he framed this massive wipeout as a healthy and necessary market-clearing process.
Hayes compared the expected market correction to the regular changes seen in the S&P 500 over the past century. While he predicts a significant drop in value for many projects, he believes the broader altcoin market will ultimately recover.
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Money printing over regulation
According to Hayes, Bitcoin’s future depends entirely on how much money is flowing globally, not on new laws or regulations. He doesn’t believe the proposed Clarity Act will have a significant impact, as he thinks Bitcoin’s price movement relies on global money supply, not legislative changes.
According to Hayes, the key to Bitcoin reaching $125,000 by the end of the year is further increases in the money supply. He stated plainly, “It’s that simple,” emphasizing his straightforward view.
According to Hayes, Bitcoin is a special combination of a technology stock and readily available cash. He believes that, given the current economic climate, how easily Bitcoin can be converted to cash is the most important factor to consider.
Hayes anticipates that the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury, and central banks worldwide will keep injecting money into the system by creating new money and buying bonds. He thinks this ongoing flow of capital will drive up Bitcoin’s price, even if the economy faces challenges like falling prices caused by advances in artificial intelligence.
Breaking the four-year cycle
Kyle Chasse recently explained in an interview that he doesn’t believe in the common idea of four-year cycles in the crypto market. His predictions are based on overall economic conditions, not past events like the halving.
Hayes points out that the market generally isn’t recognizing how much stocks and cryptocurrencies could potentially increase in value. He believes this is because governments around the world are likely to continue printing money. As a result, he predicts Bitcoin will significantly outperform the S&P 500 and other typical investments.
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2026-05-06 00:20