Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading at $2,355, right at a key technical level called its 100-day Exponential Moving Average. While one indicator suggests the price is likely to rise, data on large investors (whales) and the derivatives market paint a different picture.
The two sides are closely matched, with just a small difference determining the result. A shift of only 2% will decide the outcome.
Smart Money Stays Bullish Inside an Ascending Channel
As a crypto investor, I’ve been watching Ethereum closely, and it’s been steadily climbing since late February. Specifically, since February 24th, the price has been moving upwards within a pretty clear channel pattern on the daily chart. It started to form after the price dipped down to around $1,800.
The 100-day Exponential Moving Average is currently at $2,355. This type of average focuses more on recent price changes than older ones. Ethereum’s price is currently testing this level, and if it closes clearly above $2,355, it would suggest the price is likely to continue rising in the short term.
The Smart Money Index is currently giving a strong signal. This index measures trading activity in the first and last half-hour of each day to understand what informed traders are doing. It moved above the zero line in early April and has continued to rise, suggesting that major players in the market expect prices to go up.
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Although things generally look positive, there are a couple of conflicting data points. This disagreement is what makes the situation interesting and worth monitoring.
Whales Reduce Exposure as Derivatives Flip Short
According to data from Santiment, large Ethereum holders (known as whales) have slightly reduced their holdings over the last 24 hours. They decreased their supply by approximately 170,000 ETH, which is currently worth around $400 million. While the decrease is small, it’s notable because these whales are selling, rather than buying, ETH.
The derivatives market seems to be reflecting the concerns of large Bitcoin holders (“whales”). The total value of open futures contracts decreased from $12.31 billion on April 14th to $11.98 billion. Also, the funding rate has turned negative, going from a positive 0.011% to -0.005%. This change indicates that more traders are opening short positions (betting on a price decrease) than long positions (betting on a price increase).
The current short positions aren’t strong enough to cause a significant price increase. Open interest remains healthy, and funding rates are only slightly negative. Large investors seem to be protecting their positions rather than making big bets that the price of ETH will fall. It remains to be seen whether the optimistic signals from the Smart Money Index, or the cautious approach of these large investors, will ultimately be correct.
Ethereum Price Levels That Settle the Argument
Looking at Ethereum’s price chart, a key decision point appears around $2,397, which corresponds to the 0.786 Fibonacci level – essentially the $2,400 price range. This is only about 2% higher than Ethereum’s current price.
If the price of ETH closes above $2,397 today, it will confirm a bullish signal from the Smart Money Index. This would indicate that ETH has broken past a significant technical level based on Fibonacci retracement and established the 100-day Exponential Moving Average as a support level. Successfully doing so could pave the way for a price increase to $2,523, which is near the upper boundary of its current upward trend channel.
If the price falls below $2,397, it would confirm the expected downward trend. In that scenario, the next key support level to watch would be $2,299. If that level also fails to hold, further declines to $2,230 and then $2,160 are likely.
The bigger potential danger point is at $1,936, but reaching that level would mean a complete collapse of the upward trend that’s been in place since February 24th.
Whether Ethereum’s price breaks above $2,397 is the key indicator right now. If it does, those who bet on the price increasing will profit. If it falls back down, it will confirm that large investors were correct to sell their holdings.
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2026-04-16 10:16