It is, in fact, the very last day of March-a date that would make any respectable calendar blush-when Bitcoin appears to be trading at a charming $66,761. The fashionable gossip of the day, however, concerns not the price itself but the more diverting notion of a monthly close.
According to the fabled CoinGlass oracle, Bitcoin has dragged along a frightful streak of five successive monthly losses. The months of October through February have breathed out a slow, almost theatrical exhale of: -3.69%, -17.67%, -2.97%, -10.17%, -14.94%. Slightly more cheerful, March is tentatively perched at +0.88%. A red close today and we will set forth a sixth consecutive month of bruising losses.
Long-Term Holders Are Waving the White Flag
While the monthly close garners most of the headline flamboyance, the truly consequential portent lies deeper, on the blockchain itself.
Data suggests Bitcoin’s Long‑Term Holder SOPR has slipped beneath 1.0. In plain language, those stalwart peddlers who have held the coin for over 155 days are now trading at a loss. Analysts moniker this dip a ‘surrender phase’-an altogether apt description.
CryptoQuant analyst DanCoinInvestor mused: “While it may be early to identify the current market as the bottom, a phase in which losses become widespread would likely represent the final stage of fear and the beginning of opportunity.”
The SOPR narrative has a chronicled legacy. Every prior episode of the indicator falling below 1.0-in 2015, 2019, 2022-was trailed by a significant rally. Fortune currently smiles upon the current reading, almost verbatim, with those earlier capitulation zones.
Is Early April the Bottom?
Predictive sage Michaël van de Poppe offered a stark, direct read on the setup.
“It’s probably better to ask ‘when’ instead of ‘if’ we’re going to see the price of Bitcoin fall,” he quipped.
His chart directs us toward a liquidity sweep early in April, with a potential chillroom of recovery between $53,000 and $60,000 before optimism reasserts itself.
Historically, April has been a meteoric boost for Bitcoin. The CoinGlass monthly return compendium reveals an average +13.06% April return and a median +7.27%-though the current year has already run afoul of most established patterns.
#Bitcoin has already posted 5 straight monthly declines:
Oct 2025: -3.69%
Nov 2025: -17.67%
Dec 2025: -2.97%
Jan 2026: -10.17%
Feb 2026: -14.94%
March currently at +0.88%.If it closes red, #BTC will confirm 6 straight months of losses.
– CoinGlass (@coinglass_com) March 31, 2026
What the Data Says Right Now
Bitcoin has shed 1.08% over the past 24 hours and 6.29% over the past week. The bear trend stands firm. Yet the same on‑chain signals that presaged each major bottom in Bitcoin’s history are now hidden beneath this latest melancholia.
The upcoming monthly close in the next few hours will determine the tenor of April, and traders-reticence notwithstanding-are watching like an eager audience awaiting a novelist’s final page.
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2026-03-31 15:22