Goldman Sachs Claims Bitcoin Touched Bottom, but the Data Says: Not So Fast!

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Key Takeaways

  • Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro insists BTC‘s decline is merely flirting with the cycle average
  • LTH profitability has plummeted from a luxurious 58% to a mere 3% in just 142 days-what a dramatic fall!
  • With LTH-NUPL still above zero, full capitulation is playing coy and hasn’t yet RSVP’d
  • Bernstein boldly sticks to its $150,000 year-end price target for 2026-optimism or delusion?

Goldman Sachs: An Invitation to Enter, But Bring Your Caution

In an utterly riveting revelation from Forbes, the illustrious Yaro has observed that Bitcoin and its crypto companions have been exhibiting a “volatile but flattish performance” in recent weeks. This, he suggests, indicates a market tiptoeing through its final distribution phase like a cat burglar in a dimly lit gallery. Goldman holds a buy rating on Robinhood, Figure Technologies, and Coinbase, all trading at least 50% below their all-time highs, which is a bit like saying the soup is still warm after it’s been left out in the cold.

Yaro, ever the cautious seer, added a caveat to his sparkling prediction. Trading volumes might decide to take a vacation before making their grand return, stating that “prices may have found their floor, but volumes could very well plummet further.” A sustained decline in volume could cruelly shave 2% off revenues and 4% off profits for crypto companies in 2026-like a bad haircut that just won’t grow back.

In an unexpected twist of fate, Goldman CEO David Solomon has revealed he now adorns his portfolio with a smidgen of Bitcoin, a complete turnaround from his previous proclamation in 2024 that the asset had no “real use case”-oh, how the mighty have fallen!

The bottom in price and the bottom in activity are not the same event! Oh, the drama! That distinction is precisely what the on-chain data so generously lays bare.

What the On-Chain Data Really Whispers

The adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss metric for long-term holders, chronicled by the ever-astute Axel Adler, on-chain analyst at CryptoQuant, measures the collective unrealized gain or loss of Bitcoin addresses holding on for dear life. Since Bitcoin’s peak on October 6, 2025, the profitability of long-term holders has nosedived from a splendid 58% to a dismal 3% in a mere 142 days. Such a sharp compression is almost theatrical, reflecting a fundamental shift in the conviction of the most die-hard fans of this digital currency.

LTH-NUPL remains just above zero, not daring to dip into negative territory-an act of defiance, if you will. Adler’s historical studies remind us that durable market bottoms only manifest once long-term holders are flung into net losses-a stress phase that lasted a staggering 6 days in the 2020 flash crash, 165 days in 2019, and a grueling 277 days during the 2022 bear market. The current atmosphere is akin to the final act of that stress, but the curtain has yet to drop.

Market bottoms don’t form when investors are sweating bullets. They materialize when investors are completely underwater, as if they’ve taken a dive without their flotation devices, with accumulated gains evaporating like morning mist. That forced realization clears the market of sellers who were hanging on for a recovery that never graced them with its presence, setting the stage for the asymmetric entry conditions that follow. Adler’s conclusion? The opportunity is brewing, but the signal is still waiting in the wings.

What would set it off? A sustained plunge of LTH-NUPL below zero, coupled with prolonged price compression. That would indicate forced stress and potential capitulation-now that sounds dramatic, doesn’t it?-instead of the late-stage tension reflected by current data.

What the Price Chart Reveals

Behold the one-hour Binance chart, where Bitcoin reached a dazzling $71,750 on March 25, only to plummet like a lead balloon through March 26 and 27 to a low of $65,500, before making a half-hearted recovery and bobbing around the $66,000-$67,000 range through March 28 and 29.

The stabilization Goldman perceives as a bottom is evident in the price action. Volume on the consolidation candles is akin to a whisper compared to the thunderous roars of selling candles that preceded them. The market has ceased its descent but hasn’t quite mustered the enthusiasm to recover much beyond where it paused.

Price consolidation lingering below the former breakdown level, while volume declines on the recovery, paints a picture of a market caught in late-stage stress rather than one jubilantly establishing a new foundation. The NUPL reading and the price structure depict the same condition from different, albeit equally amusing, angles.

Bernstein: The Weakest Bear Case in Bitcoin’s History? You Bet!

Bernstein analysts recently reaffirmed their ambitious $150,000 year-end price target for 2026, asserting that Bitcoin has likely found its nadir and is gearing up for a dramatic ascent. Their structural argument is particularly riveting. Unlike prior downturns, this cycle has seen no leverage collapses, no exchange failures, and no systemic breakdowns in market infrastructure-how refreshing! Bernstein describes this as the weakest bear case in Bitcoin’s history, a correction stirred by sentiment rather than structural calamity, historically resolving faster and leaving less lasting damage to the demand base than an overzealous chef in a kitchen.

The institutional demand layer that past cycles lacked is hailed as the key stabilizing difference. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and expanding corporate treasury demand have created persistent buying that absorbs selling pressure in ways the 2018 and 2022 markets could only dream of. Strategy’s recent $76.6 million Bitcoin purchase is hailed as evidence of structural demand remaining alive and kicking through the drawdown. As financial conditions improve and Federal Reserve rate cuts become more probable, Bernstein expects ETF inflows to accelerate-transforming price stabilization into a sustained recovery. Ah, the sweet scent of optimism!

What the Data Leaves Unexplored

Goldman is proclaiming the bottom from a price and cycle average perspective, while Bernstein sees it through a structural lens. Adler’s NUPL framework portrays a late-stage stress phase, a condition immediately preceding confirmed bottoms in earlier cycles, not the confirmation itself-such drama!

The bottom in price and the bottom in on-chain stress do not arrive hand-in-hand. Adler’s framework identifies the condition that has historically signaled the bottom rather than the one that precedes it. LTH-NUPL crossing below zero and lingering there long enough to compel loss realization on a grand scale is the signal we’re on the lookout for. But alas, it remains untriggered.

Once upon a time, LTH profitability was at a princely 58%. Today it languishes at a paltry 3%. The distance to zero has never felt closer in this cycle-oh, the suspense!

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2026-03-29 13:27