Bitcoin’s Journey: Will It Hit $122K or Just Go for a Stroll?

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Ah, the ever-elusive Bitcoin, that digital creature of myth and legend! Economist Timothy Peterson has donned his crystal ball and, after much squinting and head-scratching, has declared that there’s an 88% chance Bitcoin will rise to a princely sum of $122,000 by late 2026. And no, he wasn’t reading tea leaves!

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He described this indicator as an informal cycle tool. Which is economist-speak for “I made this up but it sounds clever.” It measures frequency, not magnitude. In other words, it counts how many months were “up” rather than measuring how high Bitcoin can jump.

This is an informal metric I use to track Bitcoin cycles. It counts the number of positive months out of the past 24.

This metric measures frequency, not magnitude. So Bitcoin could trend sideways for months and this metric could still go down. But it is still very useful for…

– Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) February 20, 2026

Now, while Bitcoin could waddle sideways for months without a care in the world, Peterson insists it has a knack for identifying pivotal moments in the dramatic soap opera that is Bitcoin price history.

A chart shared with the post shows that stronger readings in positive-month frequency have historically aligned with higher forward returns. Well, isn’t that just peachy?

Nevertheless, the posts drew a delightful spectrum of reactions from users on X. One user, clearly having channeled their inner optimist, called it a “rare confluence of historical data,” suggesting that we might just be on the brink of a major recovery by the end of 2026. The 82% expected return, they proclaimed, remains a guiding signal for long-term investors, or at least those with a penchant for holding on through the storms.

Others, however, were less enchanted. One user wrote, “Bitcoin doesn’t give a damn about historical averages.” Ah, the voice of reason, reminding us that sometimes reality bites, and not in a good way!

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2026-02-23 12:58