Trump Tokens Unlocked: Will They Crash or Just Cause a Nasty Surprise?

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The U.S. President Donald Trump-linked crypto project, The Official Trump [TRUMP], is facing fresh bearish pressure as the token is scheduled for a massive unlock event. Imagine, if you will, a digital equivalent of a “you’re fired” meme hitting the markets-just in time for the next election cycle.

Based on the current market sentiment and experts’ opinions, it appears that this token unlock could heavily impact the asset’s price. Or, as someone might say, “This is the moment the crypto world collectively holds its breath, hoping for a miracle.”

Recently, crypto researcher Wu Blockchain shared a post on X, revealing that The Official Trump will unlock a massive 6.33 million TRUMP tokens worth $21.58 million. It’s like finding a treasure chest, but instead of gold, it’s a ticking time bomb wrapped in a cryptocurrency.

The post further disclosed that this unlock represents 2.72% of the total circulating supply. For context, that’s roughly the same amount of drama as a family reunion in a soap opera.

A token unlock refers to the scheduled release of tokens that were previously locked by a project to control inflation, stabilize the market, and regulate the circulating supply. However, it often drives selling pressure on the asset’s price. Because nothing says “stability” like a sudden influx of tokens, right?

TRUMP price and rising volume

On the 16th of February, TRUMP has lost 1% of its value and is currently trading at the $3.48 level, while during this period it also recorded an intraday high of $3.57. It’s like a rollercoaster that only goes down, but with a brief, desperate attempt to climb back up.

This decline in the asset’s price indicates that selling pressure has begun. Because nothing says “market confidence” like a 1% drop, followed by a yawn.

Despite the price drop, market participants have shown strong interest in the asset, as reflected in trading volume, which jumped 65% to $155.45 million. Traders are as active as a crowd at a Trump rally, but with more spreadsheets and fewer speeches.

The suggests that traders may be actively engaging with the current trend. Or, more likely, trying to figure out if this is a scam or just a very confused investment.

Price action eyes another 12% dip 

Looking at the four-hour chart, TRUMP appeared poised for a sharp downside move, as the price was showing signs of reversal from the upper boundary of the channel pattern it has been following since the 15th of February. It’s like a dog chasing its tail, but with more graphs and fewer treats.

Over the past three instances, whenever the asset’s price reached this upper boundary, it experienced a significant decline. Because, apparently, the market has a sense of humor that only a computer can appreciate.

Considering TRUMP’s past performance and the upcoming token unlock, it appears that the asset could repeat its historical move. Or maybe it’s just tired of being a punchline.

If TRUMP fails to break out of the parallel channel pattern or clear the upper boundary near the $3.62 level, it could see a price dip of around 12% and may reach the $3.08 level in the coming days. Because nothing says “optimism” like a 12% drop.

The bearish thesis for TRUMP would only be invalidated if the asset’s price breaks out of the channel pattern and closes a four-hour candle above the $3.62 level. Which, honestly, would be a miracle in the world of crypto.

As of now, the Average Directional Index (ADX), an indicator that measures trend strength, stands at 24.17-below the key threshold of 25-indicating weak directional momentum. Because, of course, the market is as decisive as a teenager choosing between two flavors of ice cream.

Derivative tools strengthen TRUMP’s bearish outlook

In addition to the price action and the token unlock update, data from the derivatives analytics platform Coinglass further reinforces the bearish outlook for TRUMP. Because who needs optimism when you can have a spreadsheet full of fears?

According to CoinGlass, intraday traders are currently following the market trend by placing heavy bets around $3.43 on the downside and $3.64 on the upside. It’s like a game of chance, but with more leverage and fewer dice.

At these levels, traders have built approximately $1.54 million in long leveraged positions and $3.34 million in short leveraged positions. These positions indicate that sentiment is tilted toward the bearish side. Because, clearly, the market is a fan of pessimism.

At the same time, long-term holders appear to be offloading their TRUMP holdings. Based on the spot inflow/outflow metric over the past 24 hours, around $2.42 million worth of TRUMP tokens have moved into exchanges, hinting at a potential sell-off. Because nothing says “trust” like moving your assets to a platform where they can be sold by anyone, anytime.

When combining the token unlock event, bearish price action, traders’ leveraged bets, and large exchange inflows, all signs currently point to a bearish outlook. Unless, of course, the market decides to throw a party and suddenly become bullish for no reason.

However, this could shift if broader market sentiment improves and TRUMP breaks above its key resistance level at $3.62. Which, given the current climate, is about as likely as a snowball surviving a heatwave.

Final Summary

  • The Official Trump is scheduled for a massive token unlock of 6.33 million TRUMP, worth $21.58 million. A financial equivalent of a surprise party with a guest list of sellers.
  • TRUMP appears poised for a 12% price dip, as the token has begun facing resistance at the key $3.62 level-similar to what occurred in the past. Because history always repeats, unless it’s too busy being dramatic.

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2026-02-17 07:31