🚨 Bitcoin’s Oversold RSI: The Secret Sauce to Riches? 💰

by

Ah, Bitcoin, that enigmatic creature of the digital age, has once again found itself teetering on the edge of oversold despair, as if it were a melancholic hero in a Russian novel. Julien Bittel, the macro research head at Global Macro Investor, has taken it upon himself to divine the fortunes of this volatile asset, and lo!-he proclaims that whenever Bitcoin’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) plunges below 30, it invariably ascends like a phoenix from the ashes.

With the gravitas of a man who has stared into the abyss of trading charts, Bittel shared a diagrammatic representation of Bitcoin’s average trajectory the last five times its RSI dipped below the mystical threshold of 30. In a bold move, he dismissed the widely held belief that Bitcoin’s destiny is tethered to a four-year cycle dictated by its halving events. “Nonsense!” he might as well have exclaimed, waving his hand dismissively.

For the uninitiated, RSI is a momentum indicator that oscillates between zero and 100, declaring an asset oversold (and potentially undervalued) below 30 and overbought (and potentially overvalued) above 70. Bitcoin’s weekly RSI currently hovers just below 37, perilously close to oversold territory, according to TradingView. The last time it languished this low was in December 2022, when Bitcoin traded at $16,500, a price so low it might as well have been a clearance sale.

From those humble beginnings, Bitcoin soared a staggering 660% to reach an all-time high in October of this year, proving once again that it is the Icarus of the financial world-though, hopefully, with fewer melted wings.

“A lot of people have been asking for an update on this chart, so I’ll just leave this here for anyone who needs to see it,” Bittel declared with the flourish of a man who knows he holds the keys to the kingdom. “This shows the average BTC trajectory following an oversold RSI reading, with RSI falling below 30 at t=0. So far, it’s been pretty bang on. Unless you…” (his voice trails off ominously).

– Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) December 17, 2025

Bittel, ever the optimist, forecasts that the current bull market cycle will extend well into 2026, a prediction that may strike some as overly ambitious but aligns with his broader thesis. He argues that Bitcoin’s supposed four-year cycle is not driven by its halving events but by government debt refinancing cycles-a revelation that might make even the most jaded trader raise an eyebrow.

“As we’ve outlined many times, based on our work on the business cycle, the current path of financial conditions, and our expectations for overall liquidity, the balance of probabilities is that this cycle extends well into 2026,” he proclaimed, as if reading from a financial oracle’s scroll.

Macroeconomic analysts at Milk Road echoed Bittel’s sentiments, nodding sagely and stating, “Short-term oversold signals have to be interpreted inside the liquidity and business cycle.” They added, with the precision of a mathematician solving the final proof, “these oversold dips tend to work higher over time, even if it’s messy along the way.”

“The bigger mistake is assuming every pullback now marks the start of a new bear market, when the macro setup still points to an extended cycle into 2026,” they cautioned, as if warning against prematurely declaring winter in the middle of spring.

Yet, for all the lofty predictions and technical jargon, Bitcoin’s short-term outlook remains less than stellar, with the cryptocurrency trading down 4.2% over the past week and lingering around $86,600 at the time of writing. One might say it’s experiencing the existential angst of a Dostoevsky character, wondering whether its next move will be salvation or ruin.

Read More

2025-12-18 10:41